Water and Uncertainty

By the end of the century, the average annual temperature on the Mediterranean will probably rise by between 2.2 and 5.1°C, well above the global average. This warming should be definitely detectable in 15 to 25 years depending on the season. The maximum warming is expected to be in summer, with an increase between 2.7 and 6.5°C, against 1.7 and 4.6°C in winter. An increase in the number, duration, and intensity of heat waves is also expected. Rainfall totals are likely to decline between 4 and 27%, with a particularly marked decline in summer, which could reach 53%. Water availability will decrease, especially on the southern shore of the Mediterranean which is already vulnerable to water shortage. Despite this decrease, the frequency of extreme precipitation may not decline and could even increase. The risk of increased water shortages seems very likely. These changes will be accompanied by a rise in sea level which is at present very difficult to predict.

Evolution of precipitation in the Mediterranean and in Europe for 2080 to 2099, compared to the period of 1980 to 1999, according to the emissions scenario A1B (Source: IPCC, 2007). Click the picture to enlarge

Note that the global scale, the IPCC, whose projections of rising sea levels are considered optimistic, forecasts a rise of between 23 and 47 cm for the end of the century. Without adaptation, this elevation would cause an increased risk of coastal flooding during storm events. The ecosystems of the region, already fragile, will be seriously threatened by all these changes. Some are expected to migrate northward or to higher altitudes, which can cause problems for the health of plants, animals and even men; others may also disappear. It is important to note that the uncertainties of local climate change and ecosystem response are very important, and we cannot rule out the possibility of more optimistic or pessimistic scenarios. The responses of precipitation and ecosystems are particularly uncertain.

Adaptation to the Present

The consequences of these changes will affect all sectors, and are primarily worsening within all existing problems. The water management is of course in the front line, and some projections show that up to 300 million people will deal with water stress in North Africa in 2070. Investment could improve the situation significantly through demand control, cutting waste, wastewater reuse, additional storage, water transport, or water desalinisation. This adaptation requires however a significant anticipation because of the delays involved in this type of investment. The uncertainty about future rainfall, moreover, represents a strong obstacle to such anticipation. Conflicts for water resources between different uses, between regions and between countries are not impossible. Avoiding such crises requires anticipation in order to share resources before a crisis makes negotiations more difficult.

From Countryside to Urban Areas

The agriculture sector, which represents up to 15% of GDP in the southern region, is also highly vulnerable. Declines in productivity are expected across the area, with falls of up to 50% locally. It seems that coping strategies exist that are able to maintain production if enough water is available, which suggests that the future of agriculture is totally tied to water availability. Given the anticipated shortage of water and considering the high consumption of water for agriculture, it is likely that priority will have to be given to domestic consumption and industry. In such a situation, the fate of the poor farmers whose capacity is limited conversion must be carefully considered.It is probable that a loss of agricultural productivity would accelerate the rural exodus, which could pose serious problems in cities. The rapid economic development in the region and a transition to non-agricultural activities could reduce the magnitude of these impacts.

Given the lifetime of the considered investments, architecture and urban planning have with no delay to take into account future climate conditions: the repetition of heat waves, water shortages, and the increased risk of heavy rain have to be integrated into the design of urban infrastructure (sanitation, building, protection against floods, transportation networks, etc.). In a parallel manner, the fact that energy costs are likely to increase has also to be accounted for. Denser cities with efficient public transit networks will be less dependent on individual vehicles and oil consumption, and less vulnerable to high energy prices. Whatever the level of climate change, the macroeconomic benefits of reducing fossil fuel dependency in the region could be very important.

Holidays, Energy and Economics

Tourism, which represents more than 10% of GDP in some countries of the region, is also at risk because it is subject to the combined effects of the warming. The possible increase of transportation prices due to rising energy prices or emission reduction policies could also make regions less attractive. Regions heavily dependent on tourism revenues have to start considering possible responses.

Finally, investment in electricity generation must take into account possible future changes in oil prices and future measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Faced with this uncertainty, the best strategy is to diversify energy sources including renewable energies that have a great potential in the region.

Most importantly, the efforts to adapt the economy of the region to future climate change have to parallel the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to reduce the strong dependence of Mediterranean countries on fossil fuels: adaptation and mitigation have to be designed and implemented consistently, taking advantage of various synergies, such as on urban structures or power generation.

Informed and coordinated adaptation strategies

In this context, several recommendations can be made.
First, future climate change has to be taken into account in long-term investment decisions (urbanisation, transportation, energy, water management, agriculture, tourism, etc.). To do so, the ability of the region to create long-term development plans has to be reinforced, for instance through the creation of regional institutions that bring together policy makers and experts on energy and environment.

These institutions should involve all stakeholders, public and private, to inform and coordinate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Such institutions should encourage technology transfer, sharing of experiences and collaboration in the region.

The Mediterranean area is a system, and the convergence of standards and regulations would be beneficial, for instance concerning the strategies for water management and pollution control. It would also be interesting to consider North-South pooling of resources for emergency response and disaster prevention (e.g., networks of meteorological and hydrological monitoring, early warning systems, and response teams for natural and technological accidents).

Finally, climate change will worsen constraints and problems that already exist . As a consequence, adaptation to climate change and emissions reduction may represent a welcome opportunity to guide the economic development of the region in a more sustainable direction. Environmental constraints and pressures on energy resources are already serious, and will become worse, with or without climate change. In the short term, measures implemented to cope with and limit climate change could help resolve a number of problems that Mediterranean countries are already facing.