Three surveys to understand climate scientists’ opinion on how well the components of climate of climate models would perform. A forth survey was made after the “Climategate” and the Copenhagen COP15. Hans von Storch and Dennis Bray, two climate scientists at Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center Geesthacht (Germany), interviewed their colleagues about their confidence in climate models
The climate issue requires both scientific analysis and political decision-making. Perceiving climatic impacts, possibilities and necessities through the lens of political interests will hardly achieve long-term success. Quite to the contrary, a dispassionate scientific analysis is needed to present the various options in detail and thus to enable normative political decisions. To this end, climate research is in need of self-reflection. Fundamental scientific values such as contradiction, openness, sustainability, independence of individuals and falsification, enable science to unfold its potential as an action-guiding knowledge provider. For this purpose – Hans von Storch (GKSS Research Centre and) and Nico Stehr (Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen) explain – the natural sciences need input from the social sciences, cultural studies and a discerning public.
International structure affects the foreign policy issues and the domestic politics; you have to do both sequentially and simultaneously. Prof. Robert Keohane (Princeton University) talks about international relations, cap-and trade and a “dual-leadership world” where Usa and China have to take the lead. But how can we get action from people and leaders in climate negotiations? “May be the Economy of Esteem could help us”, Prof. Keohane argues in this interview to Climate Science&Policy
It could be described as the ability to shape the preferences of others and attract them so that they want what you want. It is Soft Power and it is crucial in order to create a narrative of climate change which is widely accepted. But soft power alone isn’t enough: we need smart power, a combination of soft power and hard power. Prof. Joseph S. Nye (Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government) talks about the role of transnationl institutions, the new american course on climate policy and “How could we get everybody into the act and still get action”. “We are going to have to use a variety of international institutions and focus the European phrase, Variable Geometry” –
We have learned great deal at Copenhagen: whatever agreement we will come to, it has to be about the quality of economic growth and the way that it goes forward.
Prof. Thomas Heller (Stanfors University and Executive Director at Climate Policy Initiative) explains why, after the Cop15, we have now a better sense of what the problem is and where the solutions lie.
“It’s the same for all policy – Prof. Heller says – no matter how well it is designed, no matter how well it is intended, there are always questions about how it is implemented or how effective will it be”
It is going to be more and more imperative that countries around the world and people everywhere (nobody is excluded from this) will need to learn to cope with the impacts of climate change. What is really needed is money to help strengthen the capacity and the ability of poorer people with lower livelihoods through education and intermediate levels of technology to strengthen their livelihoods and their economy. “We should be able to help strengthen the capacity and the ability of poorer people with lower livelihoods” Prof. Ian Burton says. Micro insurance would help people in the period of risk and it could be provided in a manner which would encourage people to take adaptive actions. “It is an idea both of spreading risks and of helping to promote the idea of adaptation” Prof. Burton explains.
What is the appropriate balance between our responsibilities towards future generations, and our obligations towards those suffering today? This is a dilemma on which the rich and the poor have different perspectives; the wealthy emphasize imminent environmental disasters leaving to Africans messages of gloom and doom. But have you ever thought of global warming as an opportunity? “Above all global warming is an excellent vehicle for the promotion of education, the key to the alleviation of poverty, by far the most urgent priority in Africa” Prof.George Philander , Princeton University and Director of African Center for Climate and Earth System Science, writes in this article.
Transforming the energy system, improving economy and reducing carbon emissions. These are the milestones of the Indian climate challenge. “We are working to become a more modern country and to build an economy where emissions would be significantly lower”, Prof. Shukla says. The solution requires a large portfolio of energy options and a different perception of the problem: “The conventional perception – Prof. Shukla explains – looks at energy related technologies and innovations from the supply side. Now, we are also looking for solutions that are coming from the demand side”. On the path toward a sustainable development, is the 2 degrees target achievable?
The success of adaptation mainly depends on the extent to which individuals and societies are willing to accept change and adopt lifestyles that can reduce social-environmental vulnerabilities. Predominant impact studies provide an insufficient approach in order to confront climate change impacts. However, a social science oriented approach has emerged. It highlights the importance of investigating necessary aspects of adaptation such as the political, economic, and social conditions. These conditions make societies more vulnerable to environmental trauma. Therefore, the concept of adaptive capacity is crucial
Even considering that some mitigation target might be achievable, we need to deal with effects of climate change in the near future and in the longer term. This means that adaptation is necessary even if it is not easy to achieve. “In some cases it might be inexpensive, but in some cases it might be really costly” Dott. Irene Lorenzoni says in this video interview to Climate Science&Policy. In which way adaptation strategies could affect our societies? “There are different facets of adaptation goals” Dott. Lorenzoni explains: “As individuals we don’t necessarily have the freedom of choice to respond to climate change in any way that we might want to. We are constrained to a certain extent, by the societal structures in which we operate”
